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☆ US and China are buying into Mexico’s manufacturing moment
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-28 | by ( John Towfighi | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

CNN —As US supply chains decouple from China, Mexico’s manufacturing sector is emerging as a winner. Ramos said Mexico and China have been competing for the US manufacturing market for years, but amid a shifting US-China relationship, Mexico looks poised to pull ahead. Those exports were driven by manufacturing, which comprises 40% of Mexico’s economy, according to Morgan Stanley. Meanwhile, Chinese exports to the US were down 20% in 2023, compared to 2022. Analysts at Morgan Stanley see the value of Mexico’s exports to the United States growing from $455 billion to about $609 billion in the next five years.

Persons: That’s, nearshoring, Alberto Ramos, Goldman Sachs, Ramos, Morgan Stanley, Katherine Tai, CNN’s Julia Chatterley, Tai, United States Jose Luis Gonzalez, Xeneta, Peter Sand, Jose Enrique Sevilla, John Raines, Goldman’s Ramos, Biden, Raquel Buenrostro, —, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, ”, Global’s, Raines, Christoffer Enemaerke, “, Tesla, Elon Musk, Julio Cesar Aguilar, BYD doesn’t, RBC’s Enemaerke, Michael Nam Organizations: CNN, Manufacturing, Commerce Department, US Trade, General Motors, Ford, Reuters, Shipping, Container Trade, Xeneta, Moody’s Analytics, P Global Market Intelligence, steelworkers, “, Global’s Sevilla, Macip, RBC, Getty, BYD, ” Sevilla, Monterrey Locations: China, Mexico, Canada, North America, US, Ciudad Juarez, United States, Pittsburgh, Mexican, Monterrey, ”, Nuevo Leon, Asia

☆ Geopolitical strife is roiling Wall Street. Here’s what investors are watching
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Those what-ifs could further roil gas and oil prices. But if there’s further conflict, he said, “you’d see a much higher premium for oil prices. If there’s a de-escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, they said, oil prices should come down over the next few weeks. But if there’s an escalation in conflict, they expect that oil prices could jump to more than $100 per barrel, they wrote in a note Monday. Retail sales rose 0.7% in March from the prior month, a slower pace than February’s upwardly revised 0.9% gain, the Commerce Department reported Monday.

Persons: New York CNN —, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, ” Dimon, Jerome Powell, We’ll, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Dave Sekera, Israel doesn’t, ”, “, Moody’s, there’s, Chris Isidore, Pete Muntean, Sam Salehpour, Read, Bryan Mena, Claire Tassin Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow, JPMorgan, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Bank, Bank of Canada, Seven, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Morningstar, Nvidia, AMD, Wall Street Journal, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Boeing, Federal Aviation Administration, Alaska Airlines, Commerce Department, Morning, Amazon Locations: New York, Russia, Ukraine, China, United States, Washington ,, Iran, Israel, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Americans are savings less these days. Here’s why and what that means
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-14 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Washington CNN —Americans haven’t been stashing money into their savings accounts like they used to, according to government statistics. Put together, this may have resulted in “a structurally lower saving rate,” according to the report. What does the lower saving rate of nowadays say about the US consumer? Households are continuing to spend at these elevated rates and one reason is because of the lower saving rate. You’re just not seeing a reversal back to pre-Covid levels, which isn’t shocking when you look back historically to what has happened to the saving rate.

Persons: haven’t, “, Wells, Bell, Shannon Seery Grein, There’s, they’ve, we’ve, Matt Egan, ” Paul Knopp, Read, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, Lorie Logan, Mary Daly, Johnson, Morgan Stanley, Jerome Powell, Loretta Mester, John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Washington CNN, Wells, KPMG, CNN, Gallup, T Bank, US Commerce Department, National Association of Home Builders, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Johnson, Bank of America, PNC, The Bank of New York Mellon, Northern Trust, United Airlines, Federal Reserve, Abbott Laboratories, Discover, Citizens, Cleveland Fed, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Netflix, Alaska Air, National Association of Realtors, Fed, US Labor Department, Procter & Gamble, American Express . Chicago Fed Locations: Wells Fargo, United States, Europe, UnitedHealth, Blackstone

☆ How Trump’s tariff plans could kill jobs and worsen inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Trump has floated a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports, a 60% tariff on imports from China and a 100% tariff on foreign cars – including from Mexico. Trump’s proposals, if enacted, could easily set off a new trade war with China and potentially other nations, too. Some economists are warning Trump’s trade agenda and the ensuing retaliation from trading partners would hurt the US economy by worsening inflation, killing jobs, depressing growth and spooking investors. It’s hard to say exactly because there is a lot of uncertainty over how much of Trump’s proposed agenda would actually be enacted. That’s because tariffs tax imports when they come ashore, adding costs for US distributors, retailers and, ultimately consumers.

Persons: he’s, Donald Trump, Trump, ” Alex Durante, Trump’s, ”, Mark Zandi, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, ” Goldman, Janet Yellen, Joe Biden’s, Karoline Leavitt, ” “, ” Leavitt, “, Biden, “ Donald Trump, ” Biden, James Singer, Biden’s, That’s, Durante, Joe Brusuelas, don’t, ” Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Liz, Maury Obstfeld, Obstfeld, Obama, ” Durante Organizations: New, New York CNN —, Tax Foundation, CNN, Trump, China, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, RSM, Target, Walmart, Peterson Institute for International Economics, International Monetary Fund, US International Trade Commission, “, Obama Locations: New York, China, Mexico, Beijing, United States

☆ Fitch downgrades China’s credit rating outlook over economic worries
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Juliana Liu | Wayne Chang | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Hong Kong CNN —Fitch downgraded its outlook on China’s credit rating on Tuesday, citing increasing risks to its finances as it faces economic challenges. Lowering its outlook from stable to negative does not automatically mean the ratings agency will downgrade China’s creditworthiness, but it increases the chances. Fitch has kept its rating on Chinese sovereign bonds at A+. Fitch believes the general government deficit will rise to 7.1% of gross domestic product in 2024 from 5.8% last year. In December, rival ratings agency Moody’s downgraded its outlook on China’s credit rating from stable to negative, citing risks related to “structurally and persistently lower medium-term economic growth” and ongoing troubles in its property sector.

Persons: Hong Kong CNN — Fitch, China’s, Fitch, “, Moody’s Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Finance, Fitch Locations: China, Hong Kong

☆ Why gold prices are at record highs
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( John Towfighi | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Central banks see gold as a long-term store of value and a safe haven during times of economic and international turmoil. When interest rates fall, gold prices tend to rise, as bullion becomes more appealing than income-paying assets like bonds. Investors also regard gold as a hedge against inflation, betting bullion will retain its value when prices rise. The People’s Bank of China bought gold for the 17th straight month in March, adding 160,000 ounces to bring reserves to 72.74 million troy ounces of gold, according to Reuters. Higher oil prices are likely to stoke concerns over inflation, boosting gold prices, according to the UBS research note.

Persons: China —, Ulf Lindahl, Lindahl, Morgan, JP Morgan, Janet Yellen’s, Yellen, Mark Zandi, Jerome Powell, Wells, Richard Galanti, It’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Investors, Federal Reserve, China, People’s Bank of China, Reuters, UBS, Research Associates, Moody’s, of Commerce, Costco Locations: New York, China, India, Turkey, Central, Wells Fargo

☆ Every month, economists expect the labor market to slow. Will it ever?
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —Almost every month, economists expect the hot US labor market to start showing signs of exhaustion. The booming labor market has to run out of gas eventually, right? Enjoy it while it lastsHistorically speaking, there’s only so long a really good labor market can last until, for instance, a recession or tighter financial conditions disrupt it. Taken together, that could mean the life expectancy of the current labor market isn’t very long. One big reason why the labor market continues to defy expectations is the result of a surge in immigration over the past year.

Persons: February’s, Jefferies, Thomas Simons “, ” “, Simons, Will Baltrus, That’s, ” Dante DeAntonio Organizations: New, New York CNN, Conference, Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Brookings, Moody’s Locations: New York

☆ Oil price surge is the No. 1 threat to the US economy, Moody’s economist warns
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-08 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

But there is a growing threat to that sunny economic backdrop: surging oil prices. Global oil prices are flirting with $92 a barrel amid worries about a wider war in the Middle East. US oil prices surged above $87 a barrel late last week for the first time since late October, leaving them up about 21% this year. First, drone attacks on oil refineries deep inside Russia helped lift oil prices last month. Beyond the Middle East tensions, oil and gas prices have been boosted by OPEC and its allies, which continue to restrain supply.

Persons: “, ”, Mark Zandi, Moody’s, Donald Trump, Trump, ” Zandi, hasn’t, Andy Lipow, Brent, ” Helima Croft, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Vincent Reinhart, Mellon, ” Reinhart, he’s, Patrick De Haan, ” De Haan Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Wall, CNN, “, Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Lipow Oil Associates, CIA, RBC Capital Markets, RSM, AAA, OPEC, Lipow Locations: New York, Iran, Russia, Syria, Israel, Quds, “

☆ Baltimore’s economy has been humming. Then a bridge collapsed
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Baltimore’s regional economy has a lot going for it such as low unemployment and low inflation. That’s well below the national rate of 3.9% in February and ranks 43rd out of 389 regions across the country with more than one million residents. Low inflationThe US economy is still dealing with high inflation, but that’s not much of a problem for the Baltimore metro. Inflation in Baltimore slowed dramatically last year from April to June, falling to a 2.8% annual rise from April’s 5.3%. Like across the country, rising energy prices have recently pushed up overall inflation in the Baltimore metro.

Persons: Francis Scott Key, Prince, it’ll, Matt Rourke, Matt Jaffe, “, ” Jaffe, that’s, That’s, ” Christina DePasquale, Johns, Freddie Mac Organizations: Washington CNN, CNN, Towson, Labor Department, Washington D.C, U.S, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins Carey Business School, National Association of Realtors, NAR, Fed Locations: Baltimore, Port, Baltimore County, Columbia, Boston, Orlando, Atlanta, Washington, Dundalk, Md

☆ Who ends up holding the bag for the Baltimore bridge collapse?
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-28 | by ( Catherine Thorbecke | Nathaniel Meyersohn | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Marine insurance companies will be on the hook for much of the costs. These insurance companies are backed by insurance companies of their own – a type of business known as a reinsurer. The potential cost of insurance claims from the bridge collapse could be between $1 billion and $3 billion, analysts at Barclays wrote in a note Wednesday. “But other than that, the economic impact of what has happened will be enormous, but not recoverable from the ship,” Davies said. Maryland lawmakers, meanwhile, are drafting an emergency bill to provide income replacement for Port of Baltimore workers impacted by the bridge collapse.

Persons: Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key, ”, John Miklus, Dali, Brendan Holmes, Miklus, Loretta Worters, Worters, Martin Davies, ” Davies, Joe Biden, Francis Scott Key, it’s, ” Biden, Scott Olson, Davies, Bill Ferguson Organizations: New, New York CNN, American Institute of Marine Underwriters, “, Barclays, Grace Ocean, Britannia, Indemnity, International Group, International, CNN, Insurance, Costa, Maritime Law Center, Tulane University, “ Maersk, Federal Highway Administration, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, Biden, . Workers, Robins, Repair, Port, Maryland Locations: New York, Singapore, Costa Concordia, Italy, Danish, Baltimore , Maryland, Maryland, Baltimore

☆ Cars, sugar and cruises: How the Port of Baltimore closure could hurt the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-26 | by ( Mark Thompson | Chris Isidore | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The Port of Baltimore said in a post on X that vessel traffic was suspended until further notice, but trucks were still being processed at its terminals. It said it would discharge cargo destined for Baltimore in other ports nearby, but Maesrk warned customers that could mean delays. Closer to the Midwest than any other port on the East Coast, Baltimore is a major hub for vehicles, containers and commodities. Baltimore ranks first among US ports for autos and light trucks, handling a record 850,000 vehicles last year. While many of the 30,000 to 35,000 cars and trucks that used the Key Bridge daily can be rerouted through the two nearby tunnels, that will cause traffic delays.

Persons: Dali, Judah Levine, ” Maersk, “, VW, Oren Klachkin, Levine, Mark Zandi, ”, Zandi, Wes Moore, Joe Biden, Francis Scott Key, Tasos Katopodis, — Moore, Emily Stausbøll, Matt Lupoli, Hanna Ziady, Peter Valdes, Rob North, Sugam Pokharel Organizations: New York CNN, Baltimore, Atlantic, Nationwide Financial, US, Moody’s, Maryland Gov, Rebuilding, Francis Scott Key Bridge, Domino, Company, Royal Caribbean, Cruises, Cruise, Cruise Lines International Association, Royal Locations: London, New York, Port, Baltimore, East Coast, Singapore, East Coast , Baltimore, Philadelphia, Norfolk, of New York, New Jersey, Asia, Africa, Suez, Maryland, Patapsco, Rebuilding Baltimore, Baltimore , Maryland, Tasos, “, Norway, Royal Caribbean

☆ How the climate crisis will affect the U.S. economy: Top economists Jeffrey Sachs, Nouriel Roubini and Mark Zandi discuss
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-17 | by ( Jack Hillyer | In Jackhillyer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

As the climate crisis continues to pose a global threat, top economists are debating its effect on the U.S. economy. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, projects "physical risks" will be the biggest economic cost over the next 10 to 20 years. Zandi also projects transition costs associated with moving from a fossil fuel-dominated economy to one driven by green energy will put a weight on the U.S. economy. Nouriel Roubini, an economics and international business professor at New York University, says there will be pressure from stakeholders and society to make a green transition. Watch the video above to see how top economists predict the climate crisis will affect the U.S. economy.

Persons: Mark Zandi, Jeffrey Sachs, ”, Sachs, Labor Robert Reich, Nouriel, Mariana Mazzucato Organizations: Moody’s, Columbia University, Labor, New York University, University College London Locations: U.S

☆ Vanke: China scrambles to prevent another big property developer going bust
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Vanke’s stock soared in Hong Kong and Shenzhen following the reports of potential new financing. On Monday, Moody’s cut Vanke’s rating to Ba1, which is often referred to as a junk rating. Residential buildings being built by Vanke in Nanjing STR/AFP/Getty ImagesFounded in 1984 in Shenzhen, Vanke is a flagship company in China’s property sector. It was the first listed property company in mainland China, boasting a high-profile IPO in 1991 on the still-nascent Shenzhen Stock Exchange. In 2023, property sales dropped 6.5% from 2022.

Persons: Moody’s, China Vanke, Vanke, Kaven Tsang, Fitch, Wang Shi, Donald Trump, Refinitiv Eikon, Vanke’s, it’s, —, Ni, ”, ” Nomura Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Economic Observer, CNN, Getty, Time, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Metro, National People’s Congress Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Evergrande, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Vanke

☆ China growth target: Beijing wants to upgrade the economy. Why are investors so skeptical?
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Hong Kong CNN —Chinese leaders have pledged to achieve an ambitious growth rate this year, while reshaping its economic model to focus on technology innovation. On Tuesday, Premier Li Qiang announced that economic growth target of around 5% for 2024, which he said “will not be easy” to hit, given that a Covid-battered 2022 had provided a lower base of growth for last year. “The level of support is likely too little to rocket the economy to its 5% growth target this year,” said Sarah Tan, an economist at Moody’s, referring to the measures announced by Li Tuesday. “China is walking a tightrope on the fiscal front between infrastructure stimulus and LGFV [local government financing vehicle] deleveraging,” said Goldman Sachs analysts on Wednesday. In order to achieve the ambitious 5% growth target, more specific stimulus is needed, such as increasing manufacturing investments, Liu said.

Persons: Li Qiang, “, ”, Sarah Tan, Li Tuesday, Goldman Sachs, Li, ” Nomura, Xi Jinping, Peiqian Liu, Liu, Pan Gongsheng Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, AFP, Getty, Goldman, Fidelity International, People’s Bank of China, Jefferies Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, ‘, Asia, —

☆ Opinion: Biden gave the speech of his life
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Opinion Cnn Contributors | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +29 min

CNN —CNN Opinion asked political and policy contributors to weigh in on President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address. David Gergen: Biden just rewrote the presidential racePresident Joe Biden not only delivered perhaps the best speech of his life last night; he may have also changed the race itself. Roxanne Jones: Biden finally sounds like he’s ready to fightPresident Joe Biden finally has my attention. At the end of his speech, Biden reminded voters that he “grew up among working people” in Scranton. In his State of the Union speech, Biden had to answer the mail on all of these.

Persons: Joe Biden’s, David Gergen, Biden, Joe Biden, —, Carrie Sheffield, Carrie Sheffield Barry Morgenstein, Donald Trump’s, pandered, Sophia A, Nelson, Trump, Sen, Andrew, ”, Donald Trump, Harris, Daniel McCarthy, Trump President Joe Biden, Daniel McCarthy Biden, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, wasn’t, he’s, haven’t, Cori Bush, Rashida Tlaib, Bernie Sanders, Nikki Haley, Trump couldn’t, Reagan, Roxanne Jones, ” Biden, Smart, Jill Filipovic, Mike Johnson, David A, Vladimir Putin, Putin, ” David A, Benjamin Netanyahu, “, SubStack’s, Paul Sracic, It’s, White, Paul Sracic Arne Hoel It’s, Hillary Clinton, Joe, ” Paul Sracic, Raul A, Reyes, ” Raul A, Marjorie Taylor Greene’s, Laken Riley, Mark Zandi, Mark Zandi Moody's, Ana Marie Cox, Ana Marie Cox Faith Fonseca, Biden’s, Dobbs, Roe, Wade, Peter Bergen, George W, Bush, Vladimir Putin’s, –, beefed, Gazans Organizations: CNN, David Gergen CNN, Union, Harvard Kennedy School, Gallup, NATO, Democratic, Republicans, Trump, Independent Women’s, United States Senate, Biden, Congressional, Trump President, South Carolina Gov, GOP, Republican, Conservative, The Spectator, Syndicate, Big Pharma, Companies, American, Democrats, Twitter, NATO —, Israel, New York Times, CBS News, Democratic Party, United Auto Workers, Youngstown State University, Hudson Institute, Reyes CNN, Border Patrol, Georgia, ” Progressives, Pew Research Center, White, USA, Moody’s Analytics, Ana Marie Cox Faith, Jackson, Peter Bergen CNN, US Senate, New, Arizona State University Locations: Joe Biden’s State, America, United States, State, Gaza, Israel, New York, Ukraine, ”, American, China, Iran, Europe, Asia, Chicago, Scranton , Pennsylvania, Belvidere , Illinois, Scranton, Claymont , Delaware, Delaware, Ohio, Washington , DC, Georgia, Alabama, Austin, Iraq, New America

☆ Customers are pulling their cash from NYCB, but it’s no bank run
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-07 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —Customers of New York Community Bank (NYCB) pulled $6 billion worth of deposits between February 5 and March 5, leaving the bank’s deposit base 7% lower, at $77 billion. However, the pattern is not indicative of a bank run, which these days can drain a lender of funds in mere hours. Shortly ahead of its demise, depositors at Silicon Valley Bank tried withdrawing $42 billion in one day over fears they wouldn’t be able to access their funds if the bank failed. On Thursday’s call, NYCB also announced it’s slashing its dividend to one penny a share. Increasing both means the bank has fewer funds available to lend, which as a result would limit its profitability.

Persons: NYCB, Steven Mnuchin’s, Alessandro DiNello, ”, ” DiNello Organizations: New, New York CNN, New York Community Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Liberty Strategic Capital, NYCB, Wall, Moody’s Investors Service, Fitch Locations: New York, Silicon

☆ Premarket stocks: Fed Chair Powell is about to get grilled by Congress. Here’s what markets want to hear
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has a chance to provide more insight when he testifies before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. Those reports pushed back market bets on when the Fed will start cutting interest rates. Investors will closely listen for any hints from Powell about what the Fed is looking for, data-wise, before it begins to lower interest rates. Powell will also be asked about the economic pain Americans are feeling as a result of elevated inflation and interest rates. When interest rates fall, holding income-paying assets (like bonds) becomes less appealing than owning the precious metal.

Persons: Jerome Powell, there’s, ”, Powell, —, Emanuel Cleaver, Dave Sekera, Claudia Sahm, ” Powell, Krystal Hur, Samantha Murphy Kelly, “, ” Mengmeng Zhang Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal, Investors, Missouri Democrat, Politico, Morningstar, Morningstar . New York Community Bank, Fitch, Moody’s Investors Service, Federal Reserve, Costco, Apple, Counterpoint Research, Huawei, Counterpoint Locations: New York, Missouri, Morningstar ., China

☆ NYCB stock tumbles to lowest level since 1996
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —Shares of New York Community Bank (NYCB) fell 23% Monday, hitting their lowest level since 1996. The issues caused a $2.4 billion loss to shareholders last quarter, NYCB said. That caused the stock to plunge, bringing it to its lowest level since 1997. NYCB’s troubles are having a mixed effect on other regional bank stocks. Shares of Valley National Bank (VLY) closed 5.6% lower on Monday, while Zions Bancorporation (ZION) closed 1% higher.

Persons: NYCB, Alessandro DiNello, Zions Organizations: New, New York CNN, New York Community Bank, Fitch, Moody’s Investors Service, First Republic Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, National Bank Locations: New York, Silicon, NYCB, ZION

☆ Some NYCB deposits may be a flight risk after Moody’s downgrades ratings again
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Hugh Son | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Late Friday, Moody's Investors Service cut the deposit rating of NYCB's main banking subsidiary by four notches, to Ba3 from Baa2, putting it three levels below investment grade. The downgrade could trigger contractual obligations from business clients of NYCB who require the bank to maintain an investment grade deposit rating, according to analysts who track the company. But the figures are from the day before Moody's began slashing the bank's ratings, sparking speculation about possible flight of deposits since then. For instance, while Fitch Ratings cut NYCB's credit ratings to junk last week, it kept the bank's long-term uninsured deposits at BBB-, one level above junk. To replace deposits, NYCB could raise brokered deposits, issue new debt or borrow from the Federal Reserve's facilities, but that would all probably come at a higher cost, McGratty said.

Persons: NYCB, Moody's, Keith Horowitz, Horowitz, John Pinto, Chris McGratty, NYCB didn't, McGratty Organizations: New York Community Bank, New, Community Bank, Moody's, Citigroup, Fitch, BBB, Federal, CNBC PRO Locations: New, Yonkers , New York, Baa2, Moody's

☆ The American Dream is under siege
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-02 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +15 min

Parents of young children are making difficult choices to afford child care — or they’re opting to evade it by dropping out of the workforce altogether. Even as the inflation rate has cooled across the US economy, child care remains a sore spot for many families. The weekly price of day care for a toddler surged 9% in 2023, according to Care.com, a marketplace for child care. Of course, Allison is hardly alone in feeling like the American Dream has been more difficult — and expensive — to attain than imagined. “The American dream is being taken away from the younger generation by the housing affordability challenges,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.

Persons: Hana Husković, Price, Hana, Michelle, they'll, ” Hana, “, It’s, they’ll, ’ Allison Powell, Liam Kelly, ” Allison, Allison Powell, Corinne ., ”, Allison, I’ll, homebuyers, Lotfi Karoui, Goldman Sachs, Lawrence Yun, Yun, Priscilla Almodovar, Fannie Mae, ” Almodovar, that’s, Almodovar, they’d, Homebuilding, Mark Zandi, Biden, ” Lael Brainard, Brainard, ” Brainard, ‘, Rachael Gambino, Garrett Mazzeo, Rachael, Deborah Brunswick, John General, ” Rachael, won’t, they’ve, – Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wall, CNN, Federal, Intercontinental Exchange, ICE, Bloomberg, Getty, Rust Belt, National Association of Realtors, North, NAR, That’s, Baby Boomers, Homeowners, Federal Reserve, Moody’s Analytics, White, National Economic Council, American, Target, Starbucks, Facebook Locations: New York, United States, Atlanta, Peachtree Corners , Georgia, Decatur, Decatur , Georgia, Carolina, Yugoslavia, Italy, Mexico, Oakland , California, Livermore, San Francisco, California, Los Angeles, San Diego, Francisco, Miami, Honolulu, Rust, Des Moines , Iowa, Dayton , Ohio, Cleveland , Ohio, Scranton , Pennsylvania, Los Angeles , California, North America, America, States, Lansdale , Pennsylvania, Philadelphia

A New York bank is under severe pressure Friday close to one year after absorbing a large chunk of another bank 30 miles away that had failed. That pressure has been compounded at the Hicksville, New York, bank because it grew massively almost overnight after absorbing the failed Signature Bank. That put New York Community Bancorp at a new level that requires higher regulatory scrutiny, a transition that has been rocky. One of those failed banks, Signature, was acquired by New York Community Bancorp, pushing it above $100 billion in assets, which by law puts it under more scrutiny from regulators. DiNello was CEO of Flagstar Bank, which New York Community Bancorp acquired in late 2022.

Persons: Thomas Cangemi, ”, Joe Biden, ” Citi’s Keith Horowitz, Horowitz, Cangemi, Alessandro DiNello, DiNello Organizations: New York Community Bancorp, Moody’s, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Bank, Industry, Flagstar Bank, New, Community Bancorp Locations: York, New, , New York

☆ Here’s why regional banks have so much commercial real estate exposure
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —It’s no secret that commercial real estate (CRE) has become a source of stress for banks. Regional banks were on high alert recently after New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) reported steeper-than-expected future losses on commercial real estate loans. So why is it that the smaller, regional banks are so much more exposed to commercial real estate? Office real estate is among the bank’s smaller commercial real estate subcomponents. Robbins of Valley National Bank told CNN “we remain comfortable with our diverse and granular commercial real estate portfolio.”Office real estate is just one component of commercial real estate, albeit the most worrisome to banks and economists.

Persons: New York CNN —, Goldman Sachs, Fitch, Banks, BankRegData, Flagstar, “, JPMorgan Chase, —, Michael Brochstein, it’s, Ira Robbins, Robbins, CNN “, Carlos Barria, ” Organizations: New, New York CNN, New York Community Bancorp, Flagstar Bank, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, National Bank, JPMorgan, Getty, Valley National Bank, CNN, Fitch, FDIC, Reuters Locations: New York, Morristown , New Jersey

☆ Israel’s economy slumps in the fourth quarter as war takes a toll
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

London CNN —Israel’s output contracted sharply in the final three months of 2023, falling for the first time in nearly two years, as the war with Hamas takes a heavy toll on the economy. The conflict is expected to cost Israel around 255 billion shekels ($70.3 billion) by the end of 2025, equivalent to around 13% of GDP, according to the Bank of Israel. And earlier this month, Moody’s delivered Israel’s first ever credit rating downgrade, citing elevated political risk and deteriorating public finances stemming from the war. “Under a scenario of outright conflict… the negative economic impact would spread to more sectors and be longer-lasting,” Moody’s said. In 2023 as a whole, Israel’s economy grew 2%, according to the statistics office.

Persons: Liam Peach, ” Peach, Moody’s, Israel’s, ”, ” Moody’s, Ido Soen Organizations: London CNN, Hamas, Gross, Israel’s, Bureau, Statistics, Israel, Capital Economics, Bank of Israel Locations: Gaza, Israel, Lebanese

☆ A US productivity boom may explain how inflation slowed amid a strong economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-17 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

If productivity is strong, that means the US economy is doing more with less, or being more productive. Productivity is measured by dividing all the goods and services produced in the economy by every hour people worked. “But the economy did well, so that translated into higher productivity, supporting higher wage growth and fending off inflation from accelerating.”Last year’s productivity boom could also be a combination of all of the above. Still, it may be too soon to know if last year’s productivity burst was truly a transformative shift in the US economy. “Sometimes at the very end of an economic cycle, productivity can be boosted by cost-saving measures,” Goodwin of New York Life Investments said.

Persons: ” Lauren Goodwin, Mark Zandi, John Min, Austan Goolsbee, It’s, ” Min, ” Goodwin, ” Organizations: DC CNN, Labor Department, New York Life Investments, CNN, Microsoft, Meta, Citigroup, Monex, Federal Reserve, Chicago Fed, Bloomberg Locations: Washington

☆ Moody's Mark Zandi talks the risks of keeping rates higher
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMoody's Mark Zandi talks the risks of keeping rates higherMark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss the case for March rate cuts, the risks of keeping rates higher, and more.

Persons: Mark Zandi, Steve Liesman

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